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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 44

New York Jets 16 – Miami Dolphins 12

What Actually Happened

(14:51) 4-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.55 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model