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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 6

Miami Dolphins 3 – New York Jets 9

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 7-J.Sanders 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +2.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.06 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 6, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP