4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 29

Miami Dolphins 15 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(7:03) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.07 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP