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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 16

Miami Dolphins 12 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 7-J.Sanders 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.10 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 16, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 26, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model