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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 24

New York Jets 16 – Miami Dolphins 18

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 9-S.Ficken 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.49 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 34, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model