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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 10

Miami Dolphins 6 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(:22) 7-J.Sanders 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.21 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 10, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.72 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.23 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model