Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 73

New York Jets 16 – Miami Dolphins 15

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to MIA 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 48-M.Sherels MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIA 28. 48-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIA 35 for 7 yards (87-D.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.57 EP
58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 73, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model