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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 86

Miami Dolphins 12 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(:46) 2-M.Haack punts 45 yards to NYJ 41, Center-46-T.Pepper. 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at MIA 47 for 12 yards (47-V.Biegel).

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.72 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 86, worth -5.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 44, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model