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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 13

Miami Dolphins 9 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 7-J.Sanders 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 13, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model