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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Monday 2019-11-25 · 20:15 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

BAL
60.7%
LA
39.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.161 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL): +0.249 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LA offense: -0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • LA defense: -0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 25
–
LA 21
Projected margin: BAL by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

BAL

Michael Pierce DT Doubtful Ankle
Chris Moore WR Questionable Thumb
Ben Powers G Questionable Thumb
Ronnie Stanley T Questionable Ankle

LA

Rob Havenstein T Out Knee
Darious Williams CB Out Ankle
Natrez Patrick LB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 45
–
LA 6

Prediction missed by 35 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:51 TD BAL (7:51) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-M.Brown for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – LA 0
  • Q1 01:37 TD BAL (1:37) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 15-M.Brown for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – LA 0
  • Q2 09:50 FG LA (9:50) 4-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. BAL 14 – LA 3
  • Q2 04:46 TD BAL (4:46) 21-M.Ingram II up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 20 – LA 3
  • Q2 02:00 FG LA (2:00) 4-G.Zuerlein 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. BAL 21 – LA 6
  • Q2 00:15 TD BAL (:15) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 83-W.Snead IV for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 27 – LA 6
  • Q3 09:52 TD BAL (9:52) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 21-M.Ingram II for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 34 – LA 6
  • Q4 14:51 TD BAL (14:51) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 83-W.Snead IV for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 41 – LA 6
  • Q4 06:41 FG BAL (6:41) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 45 – LA 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:45) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to BAL 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-D.Thomas pushed ob at BAL 45 for 20 yards (41-K.Young).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:35) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to BAL 22, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-D.Thomas to BAL 39 for 17 yards (33-N.Scott; 50-S.Ebukam).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 87%

    (2:06) (Shotgun) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson left tackle to LA 18 for 5 yards (69-S.Joseph). BAL-68-M.Skura was injured during the play. He is Out. BAL #68 M.Skura Knee Injury.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 12 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 95%

    (9:50) 4-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 16 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 80%

    (2:00) 4-G.Zuerlein 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:56) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to BAL 22, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 16-D.Thomas.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 4 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 71%

    (2:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 80-M.Boykin to LA 18 for 15 yards (20-J.Ramsey).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (10:32) New QB BAL #3 R.Griffin. (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards up the middle to BAL 46 for 1 yard (52-C.Matthews; 99-A.Donald).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 13 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (6:41) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:08) 6-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to BAL 29, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-D.Thomas pushed ob at BAL 37 for 8 yards (34-M.Brown).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 58 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:22) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to LA 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-J.Natson to LA 14 for 4 yards (37-I.Marshall).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 8 at the 68 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 17-R.Woods pushed ob at BAL 30 for 38 yards (29-E.Thomas III).