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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 55

Baltimore Ravens 42 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(10:32) New QB BAL #3 R.Griffin. (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards up the middle to BAL 46 for 1 yard (52-C.Matthews; 99-A.Donald).

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.39 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 55, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model