Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 76

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Baltimore Ravens 45

(5:08) 6-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to BAL 29, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-D.Thomas pushed ob at BAL 37 for 8 yards (34-M.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.22 EP
68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 76, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model