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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 33

Baltimore Ravens 35 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(2:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 80-M.Boykin to LA 18 for 15 yards (20-J.Ramsey).

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.92 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model