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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 77

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to BAL 22, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-D.Thomas to BAL 39 for 17 yards (33-N.Scott; 50-S.Ebukam).

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.93 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 77, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model