Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 68

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Baltimore Ravens 45

(1:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 17-R.Woods pushed ob at BAL 30 for 38 yards (29-E.Thomas III).

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

What Happened

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.12 EP
64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 68, worth -2.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.43 EP