Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 72

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Baltimore Ravens 35

(8:56) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to BAL 22, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 16-D.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 72, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model