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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 23

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(2:06) (Shotgun) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson left tackle to LA 18 for 5 yards (69-S.Joseph). BAL-68-M.Skura was injured during the play. He is Out. BAL #68 M.Skura Knee Injury.

The Three Options

GO +2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.26 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model