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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 16 at the 28

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-G.Zuerlein 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.04 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 28, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 38, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model