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Miami Dolphins

HC Brian Flores
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2019-11-10 · 16:05 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 11.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

MIA
25.3%
IND
74.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.218 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • IND offense: +0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.165 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • IND defense: +0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Brian Hoyer (IND): -0.008 EPA/dropback in prior starts (IND starting Brian Hoyer in place of Jacoby Brissett)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 19
–
IND 28
Projected margin: IND by 9 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

MIA

Ken Webster CB Out Ankle
Reshad Jones S Out Chest
Evan Boehm C Questionable Hip
Davon Godchaux DT Questionable Shoulder
Daniel Kilgore C Questionable Knee
Avery Moss DE Questionable Ankle

IND

Parris Campbell WR Out Hand
T.Y. Hilton WR Out Calf
Pierre Desir CB Questionable Hamstring
Quincy Wilson CB Questionable Shoulder
Jacoby Brissett QB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 16
–
IND 12

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:49 FG MIA (6:49) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 3 – IND 0
  • Q2 02:00 TD MIA (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick scrambles right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 9 – IND 0
  • Q3 07:54 FG IND (7:54) 4-A.Vinatieri 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. MIA 10 – IND 3
  • Q3 00:43 FG IND (:43) 4-A.Vinatieri 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. MIA 10 – IND 6
  • Q4 11:34 TD IND (11:34) (No Huddle) 2-B.Hoyer pass short left to 84-J.Doyle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 10 – IND 12
  • Q4 05:50 FG MIA (5:50) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 13 – IND 12
  • Q4 03:36 FG MIA (3:36) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 16 – IND 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 81%

    (6:49) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:18) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 35 yards to MIA 36, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-44-Z.Franklin.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 69%

    (2:59) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 19-J.Grant pushed ob at IND 23 for 12 yards (39-M.Tell III).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (14:54) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 37-M.Gaskin to IND 3 for no gain (29-M.Hooker, 30-G.Odum).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 12 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:04) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 39 yards to IND 47, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 2 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 44%

    (5:32) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer scrambles right end to MIA 44 for 1 yard (47-V.Biegel).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 62%

    (3:45) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:36) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to MIA 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 48-M.Sherels to MIA 33 for 6 yards (16-A.Dulin, 26-C.Geathers).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 11 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:26) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 55 yards to IND 13, Center-46-T.Pepper. 80-C.Rogers to IND 23 for 10 yards (33-J.Wiltz).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:12) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to MIA 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 48-M.Sherels to MIA 29 for 10 yards (26-C.Geathers). PENALTY on IND-16-A.Dulin, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 29.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (7:54) 4-A.Vinatieri 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:54) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 41 yards to IND 30, Center-46-T.Pepper. 80-C.Rogers to MIA 49 for 21 yards (42-P.Laird).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 17 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 90%

    (:43) 4-A.Vinatieri 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 14 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 79%

    (5:50) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 79%

    (3:36) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 16 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

    (:45) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 85-E.Ebron to MIA 8 for 8 yards (40-N.Needham).