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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 38

Miami Dolphins 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(3:45) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.63 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -1.83 EP
KICK +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.57 EP