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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 3

Miami Dolphins 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(14:54) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 37-M.Gaskin to IND 3 for no gain (29-M.Hooker, 30-G.Odum).

The Three Options

GO +2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.65 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 3, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model