Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 86

Miami Dolphins 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

(7:04) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 39 yards to IND 47, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -3.11 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.35 EP
69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 86, worth -5.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model