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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 45

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(5:32) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer scrambles right end to MIA 44 for 1 yard (47-V.Biegel).

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.25 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 45, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model