Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 75

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Miami Dolphins 10

(1:36) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to MIA 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 48-M.Sherels to MIA 33 for 6 yards (16-A.Dulin, 26-C.Geathers).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 75, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model