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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 30

Miami Dolphins 13 – Indianapolis Colts 12

What Actually Happened

(3:36) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.88 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 40, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model