Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 73

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(14:12) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to MIA 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 48-M.Sherels to MIA 29 for 10 yards (26-C.Geathers). PENALTY on IND-16-A.Dulin, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 29.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 73, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model