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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 29

Miami Dolphins 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(6:49) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.28 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 29, worth -1.61 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 39, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model