4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 30

Miami Dolphins 10 – Indianapolis Colts 12

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.49 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 40, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model