4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
TB Away

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2019-10-27 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

TB
52.9%
TEN
47.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Ryan Tannehill (TEN): -0.150 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TEN defense: -0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • TB on 7 more days rest than TEN

Predicted Final Score

TB 23
–
TEN 22
Projected margin: TB by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

TB

Alex Cappa G Out Forearm
Jack Cichy LB Out Elbow
O.J. Howard TE Out Hamstring
Demar Dotson T Questionable Hamstring

TEN

Sharif Finch LB Out Shoulder
Adoree' Jackson CB Out Foot
Chris Milton CB Out Calf
Delanie Walker TE Out Ankle
Kamalei Correa LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 23
–
TEN 27

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:33 FG TB (11:33) (Field Goal formation) 9-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. TB 3 – TEN 0
  • Q1 08:58 TD TEN (8:58) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 81-J.Smith for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – TEN 6
  • Q1 00:29 TD TEN (:29) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 19-T.Sharpe for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – TEN 13
  • Q2 07:56 FG TB (7:56) (Field Goal formation) 9-M.Gay 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. TB 6 – TEN 14
  • Q2 03:50 FG TB (3:50) (Field Goal formation) 9-M.Gay 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. TB 9 – TEN 14
  • Q2 01:15 FG TEN (1:15) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TB 9 – TEN 17
  • Q2 00:21 TD TB (:21) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 15 – TEN 17
  • Q3 11:16 TD TB (11:16) (No Huddle) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 21 – TEN 17
  • Q3 00:42 FG TEN (:42) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TB 23 – TEN 20
  • Q4 07:00 TD TEN (7:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 11-A.Brown for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-V.Vea]. TB 23 – TEN 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (11:33) (Field Goal formation) 9-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:08) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to TB 28, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 22-T.Logan to TB 38 for 10 yards (93-R.Gilbert). PENALTY on TB-35-J.Dean, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 28.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 42%

    (4:42) (Punt formation) 8-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to TEN 1, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-29-R.Smith.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 11 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 26%

    (1:46) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to TB 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 28-V.Hargreaves.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 52%

    (11:34) 3-J.Winston up the middle to TEN 39 for 2 yards (55-J.Brown; 98-J.Simmons).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 13 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 78%

    (7:56) (Field Goal formation) 9-M.Gay 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:19) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to TB 26, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 22-T.Logan pushed ob at TEN 34 for 40 yards (44-K.Correa).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (3:50) (Field Goal formation) 9-M.Gay 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 14 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 72%

    (1:15) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:48) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 61 yards to TB 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 22-T.Logan pushed ob at TB 20 for 5 yards (37-A.Hooker).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.69 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 47%

    (5:28) (Punt formation) 8-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to TEN 8, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 7 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 87%

    (:42) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:57) (Punt formation) 8-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to TEN 20, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries. PENALTY on TEN-21-M.Butler, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 20.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 28 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 81%

    (3:45) (Field Goal formation) 6-B.Kern left end to TB 28 for no gain (45-D.White).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 32 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 74%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 25-P.Barber up the middle to TEN 33 for -1 yards (99-J.Casey, 24-K.Vaccaro).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:50) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to TB 24, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.