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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 30

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(7:56) (Field Goal formation) 9-M.Gay 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.62 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model