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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

What Actually Happened

(9:48) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 61 yards to TB 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 22-T.Logan pushed ob at TB 20 for 5 yards (37-A.Hooker).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model