Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 80

Tennessee Titans 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:08) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to TB 28, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 22-T.Logan to TB 38 for 10 yards (93-R.Gilbert). PENALTY on TB-35-J.Dean, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.16 EP
72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model