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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 32

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 – Tennessee Titans 27

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 25-P.Barber up the middle to TEN 33 for -1 yards (99-J.Casey, 24-K.Vaccaro).

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.78 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model