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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 41

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(11:34) 3-J.Winston up the middle to TEN 39 for 2 yards (55-J.Brown; 98-J.Simmons).

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.98 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model