4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 24

Tennessee Titans 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

What Actually Happened

(:42) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.92 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT +0.50 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model