4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 70

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 – Tennessee Titans 20

What Actually Happened

(13:57) (Punt formation) 8-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to TEN 20, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries. PENALTY on TEN-21-M.Butler, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.84 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 70, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 28, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP