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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 45

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(4:42) (Punt formation) 8-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to TEN 1, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-29-R.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.08 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.91 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model