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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 28

Tennessee Titans 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

What Actually Happened

(3:45) (Field Goal formation) 6-B.Kern left end to TB 28 for no gain (45-D.White).

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.79 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model