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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
Sunday 2019-10-20 · 16:25 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 37.0

Win Probability

NO
35.1%
CHI
64.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI defense: -0.131 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • CHI on 7 more days rest than NO

Predicted Final Score

NO 21
–
CHI 25
Projected margin: CHI by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

NO

Drew Brees QB Out right Thumb
Jared Cook TE Out Ankle
Alvin Kamara RB Out Ankle
Tre'Quan Smith WR Out Ankle
Trey Hendrickson DE Out Neck

CHI

Ted Larsen G Questionable Knee
Mitchell Trubisky QB Questionable left Shoulder
Bilal Nichols DT Questionable Hand

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 36
–
CHI 25

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:37 SAF NO (13:37) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 48-J.Gray, Center-48-P.Scales, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on CHI-16-P.O'Donnell, Illegal Bat, 0 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY. NO 2 – CHI 0
  • Q1 03:19 TD NO (3:19) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 89-J.Hill for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 8 – CHI 0
  • Q1 03:14 TD CHI 3-W.Lutz kicks 67 yards from NO 35 to CHI -2. 84-C.Patterson for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 9 – CHI 6
  • Q2 11:38 FG CHI (11:38) 15-E.Pineiro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. NO 9 – CHI 10
  • Q2 06:35 FG NO (6:35) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 12 – CHI 10
  • Q3 12:04 TD NO (12:04) 64-W.Clapp reported in as eligible. 28-L.Murray right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 18 – CHI 10
  • Q3 02:59 TD NO (2:59) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 7-T.Hill for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 25 – CHI 10
  • Q4 12:49 FG NO (12:49) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 29 – CHI 10
  • Q4 04:37 TD NO (4:37) 64-W.Clapp reported in as eligible. 28-L.Murray left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 35 – CHI 10
  • Q4 02:36 TD CHI (2:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 12-A.Robinson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 36 – CHI 16
  • Q4 00:54 TD CHI (:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 83-J.Wims for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 36 – CHI 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (13:37) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 48-J.Gray, Center-48-P.Scales, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on CHI-16-P.O'Donnell, Illegal Bat, 0 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 28%

    (11:25) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to CHI 12, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (8:50) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 54 yards to NO 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Harris to NO 27 for 9 yards (27-S.McManis; 45-J.Iyiegbuniwe).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:05) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to CHI 21, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 3 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (1:32) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 58 yards to CHI 23, Center-49-Z.Wood. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 33 for 10 yards (53-A.Klein).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 14 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 80%

    (11:38) 15-E.Pineiro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 12 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 90%

    (6:35) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (6:03) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 34 yards to NO 33, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 24
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 86%

    (2:22) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:49) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to NO 14, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Harris pushed ob at NO 37 for 23 yards (58-R.Smith).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:24) 6-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to CHI 21, Center-49-Z.Wood. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 17 for -4 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 5 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (:32) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to NO 33, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Harris for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on NO-42-Z.Line, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 33.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 15 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 68%

    (10:22) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 12 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:44) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 36 yards to NO 24, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Harris to NO 40 for 16 yards (82-B.Braunecker). Penalty on NO-25-E.Apple, Illegal Block Above the Waist, offsetting, enforced at NO 24. Penalty on CHI-82-B.Braunecker, Face Mask (15 Yards), offsetting.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:55) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to NO 36, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Harris to 50 for 14 yards (80-T.Burton).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (12:49) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 39%

    (9:23) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short right.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 7 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (2:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 12-A.Robinson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.