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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 24

New Orleans Saints 12 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.99 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +0.70 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -1.28 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP