Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 60

Chicago Bears 10 – New Orleans Saints 19

What Actually Happened

(8:44) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 36 yards to NO 24, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Harris to NO 40 for 16 yards (82-B.Braunecker). Penalty on NO-25-E.Apple, Illegal Block Above the Waist, offsetting, enforced at NO 24. Penalty on CHI-82-B.Braunecker, Face Mask (15 Yards), offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.94 EP
69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 60, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model