Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 78

Chicago Bears 10 – New Orleans Saints 12

What Actually Happened

(:32) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to NO 33, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Harris for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on NO-42-Z.Line, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.33 EP
53% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 78, worth -3.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model