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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 65

Chicago Bears 10 – New Orleans Saints 12

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to NO 14, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Harris pushed ob at NO 37 for 23 yards (58-R.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.57 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 65, worth -2.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 23, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model