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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 7

Chicago Bears 10 – New Orleans Saints 36

What Actually Happened

(2:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 12-A.Robinson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.00 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 7, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model