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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 58

New Orleans Saints 12 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(1:24) 6-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to CHI 21, Center-49-Z.Wood. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 17 for -4 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.50 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 58, worth -2.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 18, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model