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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 34

New Orleans Saints 19 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.72 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model