Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 79

Chicago Bears 10 – New Orleans Saints 26

(1:55) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to NO 36, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Harris to 50 for 14 yards (80-T.Burton).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.44 EP
60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 79, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model