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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 12

New Orleans Saints 26 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.79 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model