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ARI Away

Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Pat Shurmur
Sunday 2019-10-20 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

ARI
45.7%
NYG
54.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG defense: +0.109 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Daniel Jones (NYG): -0.118 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ARI defense: +0.153 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • NYG on 3 more days rest than ARI

Predicted Final Score

ARI 23
–
NYG 24
Projected margin: NYG by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

ARI

Zach Allen DE Out Neck
D.J. Foster RB Out Hamstring
Brett Toth T Out Illness
Joshua Miles T Questionable Illness
Dennis Gardeck LB Questionable Ankle
David Johnson RB Questionable Ankle
Zach Kerr DE Questionable Ankle
Christian Kirk WR Questionable Ankle
Andy Lee P Questionable right Hip
Ezekiel Turner LB Questionable Hamstring
Charles Washington S Questionable Shoulder
Maxx Williams TE Questionable Ankle

NYG

Corey Ballentine CB Out Concussion
Sterling Shepard WR Out Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 27
–
NYG 21

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:21 TD ARI (8:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 29-C.Edmonds left end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – NYG 0
  • Q1 04:22 TD ARI (4:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 29-C.Edmonds up the middle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – NYG 0
  • Q2 13:34 FG ARI (13:34) 5-Z.Gonzalez 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ARI 17 – NYG 0
  • Q2 11:36 TD NYG (11:36) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep middle to 85-R.Ellison for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 17 – NYG 6
  • Q2 09:59 TD NYG (9:59) (Punt formation) 4-A.Lee punt is BLOCKED by 31-M.Thomas, Center-46-A.Brewer, RECOVERED by NYG-39-E.Penny at ARI -9. TOUCHDOWN. ARI 17 – NYG 13
  • Q3 06:11 TD ARI (6:11) (Shotgun) 29-C.Edmonds left end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 23 – NYG 14
  • Q4 08:19 TD NYG (8:19) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 24 – NYG 20
  • Q4 02:13 FG ARI (2:13) 5-Z.Gonzalez 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ARI 27 – NYG 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 67%

    (10:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 16-T.Sherfield to NYG 31 for 4 yards (27-D.Baker).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 17 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to ARI 24, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 12-P.Cooper to ARI 33 for 9 yards (39-E.Penny). PENALTY on ARI-20-T.Brock Sr., Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 27. Officially, a return for 3 yards.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 9 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 79%

    (13:34) 5-Z.Gonzalez 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 20 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:59) (Punt formation) 4-A.Lee punt is BLOCKED by 31-M.Thomas, Center-46-A.Brewer, RECOVERED by NYG-39-E.Penny at ARI -9. TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 11 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 60%

    (5:58) 4-A.Lee punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 20 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 37%

    (:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 31 yards to ARI 16, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-48-J.Tauaefa.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to ARI 36, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-30-A.Hamilton. Kick deflected by ARI-D.Gardeck.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (11:23) 4-A.Lee punts 45 yards to NYG 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 15-G.Tate to NYG 32 for 17 yards (50-B.Reed; 46-A.Brewer).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 6 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 57%

    (3:34) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 15-G.Tate to ARI 24 for 15 yards (58-J.Hicks).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 92%

    (1:11) 2-A.Rosas 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (4:29) 4-A.Lee punts 29 yards to NYG 25, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 15 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:35) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 23 for -10 yards (21-P.Peterson). FUMBLES (21-P.Peterson) [21-P.Peterson], RECOVERED by ARI-43-H.Reddick at NYG 20. 43-H.Reddick to NYG 17 for 3 yards (76-N.Solder). ARI-43-H.Reddick was injured during the play. Officially, a sack for 13 yards.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 93%

    (2:13) 5-Z.Gonzalez 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.