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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 17

Arizona Cardinals 24 – New York Giants 21

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 5-Z.Gonzalez 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +3.88 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 17, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 27, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model